I have updated the information after group play. This is the lowest goals in a World Cup so far. Click the link for updated stats and charts.
Up until this point, World Cup 2010 is boring. That’s what they are talking about right now on Argentine TV. As I listened to the Argentine pundits talk, I thought it might be interesting to run some numbers comparing this World Cup against previous World Cups.
If you like goals and dislike ties, then this World Cup is boring, according to the numbers.
Every team has played one game, so we can compare pretty easily against what had happened in previous World Cups. I went back and calculated the number of goals in the first set of games of group play for each World Cup back until 1970.* It is worth noting that 1970-1978 had only 4 groups. 1982-1994 had 6 groups. 1998-now has had 8 groups. So, to some degree we are comparing apples to oranges.
|Year||Goals per Game|
2002’s stats are somewhat inflated because Germany scored 8 goals. 1982’s stats are inflated because Hungary scored 10 goals (look it up!) in its first game and Scotland scored 5. In the future, I might design a modified stat to strip away the outliers. However, even if you stripped away Hungary and Scotland’s extra goals, there were still more average goals per game in 1982 than in 2010.
Goals aren’t everything, of course. People will probably tend to think that a World Cup is boring if more games end in ties.
|Year||How many games end in a tie?|
So is this World Cup boring? Lke I said, if you like goals and you want to see one team win or lose…then this is a boring World Cup so far.
I choose to focus on the positive: ties now mean that the last set of games for group play is meaningful. Plus, blowouts aren’t very interesting to me even if they mean more goals for the highlight reel. Plus my teams – US, Argentina and Holland – have all had good opening results. So, while thus far 2010 features a definite paucity of goals, let’s hold off before labelling it a boring World Cup. The goals could still come pouring in…especially if they would ban the vuvuzela.
* A note on methodology: The statistics presented above are for the first set of games for group play, which is where we are in World Cup 2010: finished with the first set of games for group play. Every team has played exactly one game as I write this before South Africa v Uruguay. I did not take the average goals per game of all of group play for previous World Cups, as that would be an apples to oranges comparison. Nor did I take the average goals per game of the entire World Cups. For those of you who care, you can see the spreadsheet here.
UPDATE: You can see my explanation for why there are so few goals at the World Cup.